With regards to global climate change impact, as a result of its high exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards, Africa is home to one third of the people considered to be most at risk in the world.

Whilst per capita emissions are still less than half of those of the OECD countries, Africa nevertheless contributes roughly 10% to annual global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a consequence of the non-energy sources of such emissions which derive largely from land use, land use change and forestry and agriculture (60% of total). Industry, power and transport sectors account for balance of the emissions. (This contrasts with developed countries in which over 75% of emissions are derived from industry, power and transportation).

Considerations such as the above suggest that decarbonization in Africa is likely to be more focused on decentralized renewable power solutions together with grid-scale renewables to enable universal energy access.

Africa faces a poverty emergency. The proportion of Africans living in extreme poverty is falling but population growth means the absolute number is still rising, and most projections foresee that trend continuing to 2030. And eliminating the most extreme poverty (as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) of $1.90 per day) is an unacceptably low bar for African development aspirations.

The rapid expansion of reliable and affordable electricity for industry and commerce is essential to the continent’s development. Fortunately, solar and wind power costs have fallen considerably over the last few decades to a point where they are more competitive than conventional coal and gas fire plants.

At the same time Africa has a huge natural capital in green opportunities (in solar, wind and bioenergy) which could, with proper focus and support unlock new development on the continent to deliver growth and boost resilience while reducing emissions.

African countries can now benefit from a more supportive international environment (e.g. development banks, donors etc targeting climate change mitigation and resilience) and the changing needs of a global economy focused on achieving net zero carbon, to accelerate their own decarbonization and invest in new low-carbon opportunities such as exporting green hydrogen, carbon credits and metals critical to the transition to net zero (e.g. lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper etc).

Solar energy can bring power to rural areas without expensive grid infrastructure with solar photovoltaic installation cost the lowest of all renewable technologies at around USD 1,000 kW. Installed solar capacity is estimated at 10 GW while 7 MW is under construction. BP projects that around 30% of Africa’s energy production will be derived from solar by 2050. The greatest potential for solar power is in the north, northeast and south-west of the continent.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s largest user of Bioenergy. Africa has a vast variety of bioenergy feedstocks to meet Africa’s burgeoning demand for modern energy services and thus most African countries are gradually adopting bioenergy technologies. More than 10% of the renewable energy supply in 2050 is expected to be some form of bioenergy. Installed bioenergy capacity is estimated at 1.7 GW while 151 MW is still under construction. Bioenergy installed cost is estimated at USD 2,100/kW.

Africa’s technical wind resource potential is more than 59 TW, however capacity from projects under construction and currently installed have only tapped into 0.01% of this potential. Currently installed wind capacity is 6.5 GW while 1.3 GW is under construction. Installed cost for onshore wind is the second lowest of renewable energy technologies, behind solar, at around USD 1,500/kW. South Africa has the greatest wind capacity, followed by Egypt, Senegal and Morocco.